The debate Tuesday, September 10 is crucial for both candidates.

0:00 Speaker 1 Sunday morning, what’s going on in Washington? What’s going on with the election? Well, well, this is a good friend, Doug shown and traditionally he’s a Democrat, and I just want his opinion of what is going on, Doug. I’ve seen so many polls. Some have Donald Trump and the lead by fourteen points, some have Harris in the lead.

0:30 The public is not really understanding this and they don’t know how to evaluate. Give us your gut feeling. You’ve been in the business forever, give us you a gut feeling. What’s going on?

0:44 Speaker 2 Sure? John, My sense is the national polls are within a point or two. I think Harris has a very very slim lead, but candidly, it’s within the margin of error. As we’ve discussed before, Trump tends to under poll his actual vote. So if you asked me to say, I’d say the national vote is a dead heat, maybe a

1:17 Harris flight advantage, but candidly, very hard to say. The swing states as you go through them, are all within the margin of error. Yeah. I’m aware that there are some polls that have Harris up in states that Trump’s been up in and vice versa. But I see the seven states Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina.

1:52 I see them each one within a point point and a half. If you remember, in twenty twenty, Trump did particularly well in swing states. He was down and I think one of the polls in Wisconsin over fifteen points and it was ultimately on election day within twenty thousand votes.

2:12 So I would say, if I had to the swing states, there’s a narrow, narrow Trump advantage. And indeed the betting markets reflecting people putting their money down, show again a very narrow point or two advantage for Trump. But anyone who says Kamala’s way ahead or Trump’s way ahead is just playing wrong.

2:35 Speaker 1 I think you’re right there. Tuesday we have the debate. Now, you know, Harris has not had any interviews, She hasn’t been out there on in a free on the free market, being able to talk to people. She doesn’t like talking to people, or doesn’t want to talk to people. I don’t know which one it is doesn’t like or doesn’t want.

3:04 And Trump is out there, you know, saying everything. I mean, he was at the Economy Club last week. He stated all his policies, what do you give us your your gut feeling the debate is going to happen, and what do you think is gonna happen.

3:25 Speaker 2 My sense is that Trump will be much more fluent and facile than she is. I think she will give the kind of canned answers she gave with CNN. I think she’s going to try to get out of the debate without having a bad experience. I don’t think she’s looking for any sort of knockout or big victory. I

3:50 think she just wants to hold her own and candidly, I’m not sure John, that we’ll see another debate after this. I think Trump is a better batter. He has outlined his positions, and I think he’s increasingly getting comfortable with her as his opponent. And if that comes clear on I guess it’s Tuesday night, we will necessarily see less

4:19 and less interest from the Harris camp, who has a package candidate who doesn’t want to answer questions, staying in her shell, which frankly is what I would tell her to do, given how bad she is at extemporaneous answers.

4:35 Speaker 1 Do you feel there’s some voting is going to start? I think there’s early voting is going to happen in what North Carolina? And is it Pennsylvania? And that’s right? Are people really I mean, does it really make common sense to vote this early?

4:57 Speaker 2 I don’t think it makes common sense to vote this early where we don’t have a uniform schedule. I mean, yes, the states run their own elections, It’s in the constitution. I get it. But the fact that some states have two months of early voting other states have a week of it, different rules, different ballot requirements, John, I think

5:24 the only real issue this time is will the Republicans face the reality that it does exist and that there’s nothing that can be done other than to comply with it and deal with it, because I think it hurt Donald Trump tremendously that he didn’t participate. He discouraged people not to participate. Me only wanted people voting on election day. Yes,

5:56 it may have gotten out of hand, but it is the rules and have to play by the rules as they exist.

6:04 Speaker 1 Have you seen there’s been so many complaints that on mail ballots et cetera, et cetera, that they’re mailing out more ballots than they should except have those complaints been reduced this year or they’re about the same what have you been hearing?

6:24 Speaker 2 Here’s the issue, John, The question is have the voter roles been pruned of those who’ve moved, died, no longer active voters. That’s what happens when you get you know, you know, a household with two people getting four ballots.

6:42 I think it is certainly an issue and certainly a problem. My senses, people are more aware of it now than they been previously. Whether the voter roles reflect it, I think there’s a question that time will tell understood.

6:59 Speaker 1 What else do you want to tell the people?

7:02 Speaker 2 What I want to say is that the Senate is equally close. There is probably a slight advantage for the Republicans. Montana and West Virginia appear to be both in the Republican camp. Ohio is moving in that direction. I’d give the Republicans about a sixty five seventy percent chance of winning the Senate the House. It’s very hard to say

7:34 until we approach election day because that’s four hundred and thirty five individual contests. But I think we are looking at, regardless of what happens in the presidential of more likely than not having a Republican Senate.

7:51 Speaker 1 Dudstone have a great weekend and we’ll catch up with you again real soon.

7:55 Speaker 2 I will you too, John, Thank you so much.

7:58 Speaker 1 Take take it.