Update on the war in Ukraine. The Spring Offensive.

0:00 Speaker 1 With us today on Mother’s Day is ty McCoy. Ty McCoy was the assistant secretary of their force under Ronald Reagan and West Point graduate and loves America and ty McCoy, what are you seeing now going on in Europe Asia or give us evaluation?

0:25 Speaker 2 Well, Katz, it’s great to be with you as always, your team and your guests. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss this with you. It’s so vital and so important and what I’m seeing right now at the macro level, I would say that the war will continue for a lot longer since politically neither Russia or Ukraine or their

0:42 backers can step down to new to domestic politics and it can’t look like a loser. So despite the desire of many to stop the war due to destruction, humanitarian issues and dangers of nuclear war, there’s no doesn’t really seem to be the off ramp that anybody can take.

0:59 The biggest one so far the Chinese, and the biggest losers are the Russians mortgaging their future. The second biggest winner is NATO, which has come together to try and push back on this Russian aggression, and the second biggest loser is France. Having gone to Beijing, Macron kind of double across NATO and took up with the Chinese and

1:25 talked about autonomy for France and seemed to be calling away in the direction of the Chinese, who are of course in support of the Russians. The Russians don’t have the machines, generals are combat cohesion and skills to win, and the Ukrainians don’t have the men, but they have better men. They don’t have the machines, but they have

1:44 better machines. So each side keeps looking for an escalatory advantage that the other knight match easily, to gain advantage, to force some success and then negotiations and ty.

1:56 Speaker 1 What I found, what I try to find out is both sides are aligned, you know, tremendously. I mean, you can’t believe what Russia says, and you really can’t believe what did Ukrainians say.

2:10 Speaker 2 No, you can’t. They’re both grew up in a culture in the Soviet Union of disinformation. UH. The security services have a long record of deceit oppression, going back to Tsaris times when when both countries were part of the Tsaris Empire, and so the both sides are are trying to fool each other, and they also don’t even really trust their allies. The Russians don’t trust

2:44 the Chinese and others, and the Ukrainians don’t really trust some of the countries in NATO who were trying to guide and to restrain them from recovering, you know, all the Ukrainian territory they want. So there’s going to be a lot of dis in from Asian misinformation and misleading things that are going to happen. The Russians are having

3:06 a bit of success at the very geostrategic level, using the Brits countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to try and win the global South. They also pull Macron a pull away from NATO a bit and trying to get him to team up with the Chinese and to talk about strategic autonomy for France. And so this

3:32 was really a very bad development. The French generals, I’m told, were extremely upset and the French people are upset with Macron, who sort of went off on an ego trip trying to talk to Zi and Beijing, and he is very disliked as a result of that and is really taking a meeting. I think he’s really caused a lot of

3:55 alarm on the part of the Ukrainians as they are worried about you will try and pull native apart and not have NATO backing them very well, the Russians do not have the generals and the equipment to really prosecute the war to a victory. The Ukrainians, while they have better men and better machines, they have to wait for

4:22 more modern equipment and deep strike artillery in order to prosecute a real counter offensive. Because the Russians have dug huge trenches and huge barriers and set up in some cases trenches that are eight deep. So they’re really preparing for a World War one French warfare system. And if you go on the offensive, you generally need three or

4:47 four to one in terms of troop strength, and you also suffer very very high casualties in such a trench warfare situation unless you can achieve very large amounts of armor and artillery in order to break through the trench system and try and circle the defenders.

5:07 Speaker 1 So right now, the way I have tight the way I look at it, it’s the Chinese that are orchestrating everything. They are using Russia taking Russia’s oil, arranging discounts to Pakistan and India. And so Pakistan and India are loving it because they’re buying it thirty percent below the market.

5:38 And and and then and Saudi Arabia and Russia want one hundred dollars oil because they’re going to make up for the thirty percent discount. I mean, it’s a vicious circle. There’s a world war going on, and what the real price of oil is. America wants a sixty five seventy so inflation will go away because at sixty five seventy,

6:07 inflation will go away by itself if the Fed. But if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, it’s going to destroy the whole country.

6:17 Speaker 2 Well there will. It’s already destroy a good bit of the banking sector, and it’s a big threat to the banking sector. And as we know, energy, the price of energy feeds through to everything, every product, every job. And the disruption of this and reallocation of how the oil flows are happening in the world are a result of

6:38 the war, a result of Putin striking out and believing the dream that his generals and his spies were telling him was true. And In fact, his spies were wrong, his military was rotten and corrupt, and he bought a real bad story from a bunch of s men and it’s gotten you into a tremendous pickle. So he’s he’s

7:04 in danger himself in terms of holding onto power. He’s mortgaging the future of the country, which could if it’s weakened enough, you could have Chinese moving into some of his eastern provinces. The Chinese have recently on some of their maps changed the names of some Russian cities to Chinese names. These are cities in Russia change the names

7:28 back to Chinese as there were many many hundred years ago. So there’s a growing, you know sense that, uh, the Russians under such screen that there could be some some real major geostrategic boundary changes at some point if if if the Russians can’t can’t just realize they need to back off and and and bet they made some mistakes,

7:58 which is going to get tougher and tougher because of the International Criminal Court is now charge putin with being a war criminal. And so he’s finding that he’s got less and less maneuver room, and he’s got less and less opportunity to back out of a very costly error that he made.

8:16 Speaker 1 Understood. Now, let’s take the rest of the world. So China is causing all these situations, and they’re also moving to try to make their currency more relevant and the dollar less relevant. You see any any progress in that or is it just mickey mouse?

8:39 Speaker 2 I think there’s some progress in it. They are getting this alliance of countries in the global South, the bricks countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. They’re trying to find a way to create interfaces and connect the pipes, the financial pipe that will allow for buying and selling in the international marketplace using the Chinese currency. I think

9:09 that still they don’t quite have the credibility and they don’t quite have the machinery and the plumbing in place to do that. The famous Chinese bult and Road initiative, which is basically a debt trap. The Chinese come into a country and little them a lot of money to build things, which they don’t build very well. And the

9:33 Chinese are saying, when you can’t win the country such as Pakistan and others can’t pay the debt back, we want your ports, we want your air fields. We want all kind of special rights. So the Chinese are making making.

9:50 Speaker 1 And the world to use that, and the World Bank cannot help them because China owns twenty percent of the World Bank, they would veto the transaction.

10:03 Speaker 2 Yeah, the Chinese are you know, they have a permanent seat on the Security Council, as does Russia. They can veto anything. They have seats and commitments in the World Banks, so they’re using all of their influence they control very much.

10:18 A lot of people think the World Health Organization, which is now proposing regulations which people in Congress are up in arms about, that the World Health Organization can issue directives that will override all sovereign powers. That when they tell you to take a shot or stay at home, or if there’s a public health danger like guns or

10:40 trips to the mall, that countries would have to abide by the directors of the World Health Organization, which is just another supernational arm and part of the United Nations. We’re almost out.

10:56 Speaker 1 Ty, we’re out of time, but I just wanted to make a point. We are in a world war. The good news is we’re not shooting each other with nuclear bombs, but we’re doing it economically and in many other ways.

11:11 Like you said, the World Health Organization and let’s pray for America. Thank you for your input telling the American people what’s really going on, and we’ll catch up again real soon.

11:22 Speaker 2 Sounds great, great to talk with you this morning. Thank you,