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Gordon Chang China Analyst & Author

Nuclear Tensions Rise as World Leaders Prepare for Critical Talks

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In this interview

Gordon Chang

China analyst and author Gordon Chang tells John Catsimatidis that President Trump’s trip to Shenzhen for the APEC summit in November is the most important thing on the calendar, with a possible meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He says Iran has the components for a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile, though it is not known whether Iran has assembled them.

Key takeaways

  • Chang said a U.S.-China-Russia nuclear agreement would be monumental but, he thinks, very difficult to achieve.
  • He said a Hwasong-15, with an 8,100-mile range, could reach any part of the U.S. from Iran.
  • He said he thinks the risk Iran poses to the U.S. is greater than President Trump mentioned.
  • He said that, Iran aside, he probably fears Russia most, whose leader has threatened to use nuclear weapons.
  • He said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is very much alive despite rumors of his death.

In their words

“President Trump has raised the issue of a nuclear agreement among the three countries. That would be monumental.”

— Gordon Chang, at

“Right now, Iran actually has the components for an intercontinental ballistic missile.”

— Gordon Chang, at

“The United States, of course, has the best nuclear arsenal, not the biggest, but I think the most fearsome.”

— Gordon Chang, at

Quotes are word for word from the automated transcript, uncorrected; the summary and takeaways are editorial.

Transcript

Automated transcript · uncorrected

Speaker 1 Calling in right now is Gordon Chang and his Twitter, at Gordon G. Chang. And Gordon is a lawyer, an author, and one smart guy, one good friend. And there’s nobody better that knows the Middle East or the Far East than Gordon. Well, Gordon, give us an update. Where the heck are we?

Speaker 2 The most important thing on the calendar will be when President Trump goes to Shenzhen in China next month for the APEC summit. That’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. There, there’s a possibility that there’ll be a meeting with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. There’s a lot to talk about. President Trump has raised the issue of a nuclear agreement among the

three countries. That would be monumental. I think it’s very difficult to achieve, but there’s a lot that’s going to be talked about. And also, The following month, December, Xi Jinping is coming to Florida for the G20. And so there’s a lot of diplomacy going on at this particular moment.

Speaker 1 Now, I mean, the one thing I tell people is China will never, ever launch a nuclear attack, in my opinion, that Russia, Putin is not going to do that. But I never trust Iran. Because they’re the ones that did what they did that was just as bad as what Hitler did to the Jews. Iran hired Hamas to attack Israel.

I mean, President Trump says there’s no way we can allow them to have nuclear bombs. Well, how do you feel about it?

Speaker 2 Well, absolutely. You cannot allow the Iranians to have that. And also, the other thing that we can’t allow them to have are ballistic missiles. Right now, Iran actually has the components for an intercontinental ballistic missile. North Korea transferred it to them, the Hwasong-15. A Hwasong-15 has a range of 8,100 miles, and if launched from Iranian territory, it

could reach any part of the United States. We don’t know if the Iranians have been able to put all those components together to but they certainly have them. So President Trump, when he talked to the American public in April, sort of underplayed that risk. But I think the risk that Iran poses to the U.S. is greater than he

actually mentioned.

Speaker 1 Understood. And of all the nuclear countries, which one do you fear the most other than Iran?

Speaker 2 Probably Russia, in the sense that Russia has a leader who has threatened to use them. He threatened President Biden before Putin attacked Ukraine in February of 2022. But we also know that the doctrine of both Russia and China, although they say no first use, they do appear to be developing weapons for warfighting capability. So I’m concerned about

both of them. The United States, of course, has the best nuclear arsenal, not the biggest, but I think the most fearsome. And so we can still deter them. But when you have two adversaries that are working together, it does sort of make the calculus a little bit difficult to follow.

Speaker 1 Understood. Well, I mean, North Korea, we haven’t heard much from him.

Speaker 2 Yes. Well, the big news out of North Korea was the news that wasn’t news, and that was rumors of the death of Kim Jong-un. This happens periodically for various reasons, which we can only guess. But Kim is very much alive.

But this raises an issue that we need to consider. Even though Kim is alive, we need to think about what we would do when Kim does die, because they hold on to a very big arsenal, one that’s growing.

And at this point, the North Korean regime, if it fails, could cause a disaster in North Asia that could ripple throughout all of East Asia.

Speaker 1 And so we talked about China. And that meeting that’s going to happen between China and Putin and Trump, this is after the election.

Speaker 2 It’s after the election. And though no one has announced a tripartite meeting among the three leaders yet, you would think that that was in the works because President Trump and Xi Jinping were going to meet on the sidelines of APEC. Vladimir Putin wants to meet Trump. So I think that it’s sort of natural that everybody sits down together.

But at this point, that has not yet been announced. Understood.

Speaker 1 Well, what else would you like to tell the American people on a day like today? I mean, we only got... 10 days or something, 11, 12 to the election?

Speaker 2 Yeah, well, in the beginning of this week, China announced its third quarter gross domestic product of 4.5%, which I think was exaggerated. This has importance because it can very much affect the way China operates going forward with a deteriorating local economy. Going forward on the election, this is going to be crucial because our relations with China are consequential.

President Trump has one view of it. I’m not sure that the Democrats have another. We’re not seeing a coherent foreign policy message at this point. That’s important because these big adversaries are moving in a very coordinated manner. And in China’s case, one could even say it’s an enemy.

it’s a very difficult situation right now. So we’d like to hear from all parties about what they think they’re going to do going forward.

Speaker 1 And I guess that’ll happen at that point. And, um, any other country you want to talk about? How do you think the elections were? How’s the pulse that you’re getting? Uh, cause you have, uh, your own pulse that you take on, on what’s going on in our country. And a lot of people say, well, what’s going to happen? Uh, And

I can’t believe that some of the things that the Democrats stand for, that the American people as American citizens can vote for them. Yes.

Speaker 2 You know, the Democrats always complain about the Republicans and, of course, vice versa. But right now, the Republican talking points, I think, are... And I’m not a Republican, by the way. But the Republican talking points hit home to me because you have Democrats, because they want power, are supporting candidates who’ve got very, very bad messages. This is, you know,

support of Hamas, support of Iran, support of all sorts of communist ideas. And the Democrats don’t seem to really care. So... I find that extremely distressing. I know parties want political power, but there should be limits to who they put up in order to obtain it. And right now, the Democrats are not limiting who they support. They’re going for anybody

who can win.

Speaker 1 Gotcha. Well, thank you so much for coming on. And I guess we’ll know real soon and we’ll talk again real soon.

Speaker 2 Thank you so much.

Speaker 1 And your Twitter, at Gordon G. Chang. And your Twitter is on 24 hours a day, seven days a week. So if you want to know what’s happening, go at Gordon G.

Speaker 2 Chang. Thanks, John. Too much is happening, actually.

Speaker 1 Too much, I know. Thank you.

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