The war in Ukraine, update.

0:00 Speaker 1 With us today is Admiral James Stavridis. He led NATO Alliance. He was Global Supreme Ally Commander of all in NATO for four years. There’s nobody that knows the world more and the effects of things more than Admiral ster Reedes.

0:22 Also he’s with the car Out Group. He’s chairman of the trustees at the Rockefeller Foundation. My god, a little bit of everything, Admirals Sterritis. I am proud to know you.

0:34 Speaker 2 I am proud to know you, my dear friend. It’s good to be on with you.

0:38 Speaker 1 Tell us where do you want to start? I mean, there’s so many problems in the world. Where do we start? This morning?

0:46 Speaker 2 I think we started Ukraine. John, And before we even get to Ukraine, we should pause for a moment on the death of Yevgeny Probusion, who was executed by the explosion of his airplane, almost undoubtedly under the auspices of Vladimir Putin, of revenge for Progotions attempted rebellion about two ago, John, a couple of months ago, I was asked in the media,

1:15 how long do you think progotion will last? And two months ago I said, he’s got sixty to ninety days. If you go for the king, you better kill the king. And he failed to do that. Putin blew him up, along with his career of senior advisors on a plane between Moscow in Saint Petersburg. So, bottom line, and how

1:37 does that impact Ukraine? It Sprngten’s Putin, who was a weakened by this rebellion. Now he gains a little bit of you’ll pardon upon a little bit of air speed, and so Putin is now ready to return his full attention to Ukraine. That’s the bad news. Here, here’s the good news, John, the Ukrainian military, their counter offensive in

2:05 the south is starting, I think to have real effect. And if they can the Ukrainians crack through this triple deep Russian defense. Once they break through that, they will have pretty open running room from there to the Black Sea.

2:23 They can divide the Russian forces, they can flank them, come behind them, and they can start to lay the groundwork for attacking Crimea. So death of Progos good for Ukraine. The Ukrainian counter offensive going fairly well better than it was a month ago. We’re going to have a very active fighting season between now and the arrival of winter.

2:44 Speaker 1 Adwill. Does Putin realize that all the money that his generals were getting to beef up the Russian forces, as they say in New York or Brooklyn, they were glombing it and they had they didn’t have superior forces.

3:04 Speaker 2 Yes, he has come to the realization that his generals have failed him, and they failed him not only John on matters of corruption literally taking funds out of the pockets of the Department of Defense in Russia, but also failures of logistics. The Russians unable to get the basics food, fuel, heating, ammunition capability forward to the troops. A lot of that

3:33 has to do with bad leadership by the generals, in bad logistics. Putin has woken up to this, and that’s why you’re seeing a lot of turnover in the leadership of the Russian senior military. I would argue, unless Putin gets rid of his Minister of Defense Schweigu, and gets rid of the Chief of Defense Garassimov, these problems that

3:58 he faces are not going to be solved. And that’s a good thing from the perspective of Keith.

4:03 Speaker 1 Now, the Russians with the Wagner Group, we’re taking over five or six or seven countries in Africa, mostly because they were very mineral rich. Now what happens now, does Putin take that over or who’s running the Wagner Group.

4:24 Speaker 2 The short answer is we don’t know yet, but you are correct, John, that’s a significant flow of income for Vladimir Putin and the coffers of the Kremlin. It’s also significant geopolitical influence in Sub Saharan Africa. It is about four to six different countries where the Wagner Group kind of have their clutches into the nation. So if you

4:50 want to guess what I would guess will happen is those operations will continue. You’ll see a new leader put in place of the Wagner g The members of the Wagner Group will have to swear allegiance to the Russian armed forces. They may become somewhat like the French Foreign Legion, a military that fights overseas. And at the end of

5:14 the day, what Putin wants from the Vagner Group is cash. That’s the minerals, the gold, the diamonds. Any once that geopolitical influence among these nations, he’ll get both of those. Look for a new leader to be appointed at the Wagner Group in the next few months.

5:31 Speaker 1 Understand. So there’s no real leader right now or is there an implied leader.

5:36 Speaker 2 There is not a single point of leadership in the Wagner group because they all blew up in the airplane alongside pregosion a week or so ago.

5:47 Speaker 1 Understood, Now, where do we go from Ukraine Africa? But we’ve been to China and they are screwing around and North Korea is threatening that the training their troops to go after South Korea again.

6:10 Speaker 2 You pick an area, Let’s do a little bit of China and a little bit of the Korean peninsula. So starting with China, what we are seeing as the number one challenge for China is not military. It’s not geography, it’s not geopolitics, it’s not tech. It’s their economy. Their economy feels very shaky to me at the moment. It

6:32 kind of feels like the US economy two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, big overhang in the real estate sector. Productivity has really not recovered since the end of the pandemic, a general sense of malaise through the economy. Many of the high end entrepreneurs are very concerned about the influence and the dictatorial policies of the Chinese Communist Party, so

7:02 that economy is kind of shaky. John, That’s what we are to be watching for two reasons. Number One, that’ll impact us here in the United States. If China’s economy really falls apart, that’s going to have knock on effect in the global economy, just as the US economies challenges in eight oh nine did huge influence globally. So that’s

7:23 one concern. Second is, authoritarian countries often when they have problems at home, especially economic ones, tend to look for scapegoats outside the country. So you could see a China that becomes counter intuitively perhaps more assertive in the South China Sea as they work to distract the Chinese population from the economic problems at home. So a lot of

7:49 storm clouds on that Chinese horizon. And then John to just flip over to the Korean Peninsula for a moment. Here, you’re correct, we see the North Koreans acting more aggressively. They’re also, by the way, about to enter a big arms deal with Russia, supporting Russia in Ukraine, US making countervailing moves against North Korea. We just sent a nuclear

8:15 submarine first time in years to South Korea. We’re exercising militarily with the South Koreans. So watch for tensions to go up on the Korean Peninsula. Watch for China to potentially act out more in the face of their own economic challenges.

8:34 Speaker 1 Understood, we got a minde of so left. What would you like to tell you American people? Besides you got a new book and it’ll be coming out soon.

8:44 Speaker 2 I do have a new book, thanks for asking. It’ll be out just after New Year, and it is a sequel to twenty thirty four, which is about a war with China in the year twenty thirty four. John, This new book is twenty fifty four set mid century, and it’s a good topic to close on. Book twenty fifty

9:03 four is about artificial intelligence and it’s impact here in these United States. How challenging that could become for us. I think we worry a lot, we think a lot we should about the rise of China. I think the rise of artificial intelligence will in many ways be a greater challenge for us. We have to manage our way

9:24 through that. That’s what the new book twenty fifty four is about.

9:28 Speaker 1 Well, I mean, just a tidbit. Will anybody believe what the Internet says, and how do you approve a lie or the truth on with artificial intelligence.

9:38 Speaker 2 John, you just put your finger on a central challenge that we are going to have to manage through. There are some technology answers to that, there’s some educational answers to that, there are some regulatory answers to that, but we are nowhere in that conversation as yet. We better wake up. That’s what the book twenty fifty four seeks

9:59 to do to help us wake up to those challenges. Let’s talk about it next week.

10:03 Speaker 1 Admiral Stevets have a great Labor Day weekend. God bless you and God bless America, and thank you for continuing to work for the benefit of the United States of America.

10:13 Speaker 2 Thank you, Thank you, my friend John, have a great Labor Day weekend. Bye bye you too,