Breaking Down the Dynamics of the New York Gubernatorial Race

0:00 Speaker 1 Sunday morning. What’s going on in Aubany with us today? Is Jesse on and he’s the executive director of ex General Affairs and chief of staff at a Manhattan institute. Well, Jesse, what the heck is going.

0:13 Speaker 2 On in Aubany, Well John. The latest out of Albany and the governor’s race for who will be next to lead New York State is that Antonio Delgado, who is Kathy Hochel’s lieutenant governor, has dropped out, leaving Hopel no challenger from the progressive side of the Aisle or into Democratic Party all together, on her way to returning for

0:39 another four years in the Governor’s mansion. It’s a remarkable development. It’s a very different place from where Hopel was just a few months ago. She has a couple of policy wins to hang her hat on now. Alis Staphonic exited the race for the office, her lieutenant governor dropped her challenge against her, and now she has a pretty clear

1:02 pathway at least to the general election against Nasau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, but possibly all the way to four more years in the office and challenges.

1:15 Speaker 1 It’s somebody opposed that had come out so far it puts her in a lead. You think it’s just an early leader. Do you think that it’s pretty much an a.

1:26 Speaker 2 Pulse, Well, I think the Democratic primary is pretty much a done deal. Something that’s really striking is that the progressive lane or the far left lane, never consolidated behind Hopel’s Lieutenant Governor Delgado, who launched a challenge against her, even though Ron Mamdani, the Mayor of New York City, who theoretically could have mobilized the left coalition against Hopel,

1:49 ended up returning the favor that she did for him in his electoral campaign and endorsed her instead of Delgado. And that really tells you something important. It’s that the activist left hawks revolution, but when push comes to shove, they often choose the incumbent who shows some signs of being able to govern and win, or at least that

2:09 tells you something about Mamdanie in the way he’s operating. Hopel has threaded this needle progressive enough, rhetorically, tough enough on affordability and safety to look I guess, competent enough to not have any kind of meaningful ideological contrast running against her in the primary race. So voters seem to, at least on the Democratic side, have made their choice

2:32 and it’s one for stability.

2:35 Speaker 1 I understand. And the convention was this week with Bruce Blakeman. It looks like he’s cruising to the nomination. And I guess you guys to get started, and at what point do you think will be able to have a pulse of who really is in lead?

2:54 Speaker 2 Well, you know, in December, Representative Elie Stephonic, who was the favorite in this race for a rile. Her Republican campaign for governor, sought to capitalize on her national profile, her aggressive style, her great camera presence, and close relationship with President Trump. In December she dropped out of the race.

3:13 And that was a very competitive race. We saw even some polling that showed Stephonic and Hopal neck and neck, and before that you had Mike Lawler, the congressman from the Hudson Valley area, who was looking at getting into the contest with Blake Mian. We haven’t seen a ton of polling to date that shows the race as competitive,

3:34 but is still very very early. There have been some interesting policy fits that you might not expect that have broken out already. Hopeful for example, endorsed the idea of one conductor on MTA train lines being required only that you don’t need to have too, And this is something that public sector unions have long opposed and said that

3:57 for public safety reasons and for labor reasons, you should really have two train conductors. This is something that Blakeman came out and said he is on the opposite side of hochel On. He says you do need too. So there are interesting policy splits that aren’t always predictable shaking out in this race. But it’s going to be a

4:15 very difficult environment for Republicans nationally in twenty twenty six. So it’s a tough race here in New York. Leeds Elvin came very close to defeating Kathy Hopel four years ago, and it looks like it’s going to be an uphill client for Blakeman to replicate that kind of success and campaign with a real promise. But nothing is impossible.

4:36 Speaker 1 Of course, Bruce Blakeman got the nomination this week. Governor Hokeel has been the governor, So I think we give it ninety days at least and see which way it goes. And see you when they both have out there talking let’s see which way the pulse is doing.

4:54 Speaker 2 Absolutely, you gotta wait and see what these things. But Hochel’s position today is far improved from where it was just a couple of weeks ago, and you do have to lend her some credit for that. Kudos is due where it is due. On housing policy issues, on cell phone bands and schools. Hopel has made some decisions that

5:17 are in fact popular, and she has sort of changed her standing in the electorate’s eyes. She was held responsible for that underperformance relative to leave Zeldan four years ago, and through the ire of a lot of Democrats nationally, she was one of the least popular governors in the country.

5:36 She has improved her standing significantly and Republicans are now going to have to get creative with mounting a campaign against her. The shape of the race looks very different today than it did a couple of months ago, when it was going to be at least Dephonic who was projected to be at the top of the ticket, that’s

5:53 for sure.

5:55 Speaker 1 Jesse On manhattans to thank you so much for coming on this Sunday morning and giving all our listeners the heads up of what the heck is going on and we’ll talk again, Wilson.

6:07 Speaker 2 Great to be with you, John,