Ukraine funding in House and Senate.

0:00 Speaker 1 With us today is Admiral James Tavridis. He was Supreme Ally Commander of NATO for four years. He is now with the Carlisle Group vice chairman, and he is a chairman of the board of the Rockefeller Foundation. And one smart guy and a good friend. And there’s nobody that knows more about the heck what the heck is going

0:24 on in the world than he does. Admiral, good morning.

0:29 Speaker 2 Great to hear your voice. John. Always a pleasure to be with you.

0:34 Speaker 1 There’s so many things going on in the world. I mean, I hated the last time we talked a few weeks ago. I hated to joke around and say how many how many countries have to be involved before we call it a world war. But I don’t think. I don’t see things getting much better. Let’s talk about Russia Ukraine. Russia

0:58 is putting out statements that we’re under estimating them. Sweden has become a member of NATO. I believe. Now Poland is pulling out putting out that they’re afraid they’re going to be invaded. I mean, what is the truth.

1:16 Speaker 2 Yeah, let’s start in Europe. So both sides, both Russia and Ukraine are increasingly exhausted by this war in terms of their military capability and in terms of the economic sanctions that are being applied on both sides. So both countries are struggling, and of course that’s bad news for Russia and Ukraine, but globally it could move us toward

1:44 a moment where the sides want to negotiate. Now there’s a good bit to go before we get to that, John, The next big thing will be as we come out of the winter stalemate, Ukraine will have a new military advantage.

2:01 They’re going to have F sixteen aircraft supplied by the West. Hopefully our Congress will get the job done in terms of continuing aid to Ukraine. Europeans are certainly doing so. Assuming that military eight continues and assuming those F sixteens hit the battlefield, I think Ukraine will have a pretty good pounce in their step in the spring. On the

2:26 Russian side, their new edition is a lot of material coming in from North Korea. So both sides are facing challenges in their military inventories, but both sides have outside sources. When I kind of put it all together, John, I think towards the end of this year, probably after the US elections, We’ve got a moment for potential negotiation. So

2:52 I’ll wrap up by saying, well, how will this end? You know, what will the conclusion look like? And I think it is a better than even chance that ultimately dis will land like the Korean War, meaning that Russia will probably still have control of some portion of Ukraine Crimea the land bridge to Russia. On the other hand,

3:17 I see Ukraine coming into NATO. I think the outline of that deal will probably become more clear as this year goes on.

3:28 Speaker 1 Well, there’s also rumors around on military that we’re short on ammunition, were short on various ammo and also about a lot of discontent that things are not going right. What do you I mean, you’ve been there forever, you’ve been in charge, and what do you hear behind the scenes.

3:54 Speaker 2 Well, first and foremost, the US military is forward deployed conducting highly capable and credible combat operations. We’ve got two carrier strike groups that are inactive combat off the Arabian Peninsula. They’re knocking down hoothy pirate missile sites. They are knocking down missiles being fired at global commerce. Likewise, the US military in Ukraine, as part of NATO is supporting the Ukrainians.

4:29 They fought the Russians to a standstill. Last week, US Navy warships passed through the Taiwan Strait, sending a signal to China of our determination to keep those waters as international and free. So Point one, the US military is out and about the world in is performing very very well.

4:54 Point two shortages of ammunition. I think that some of our surplus ammunition stocks have been depleted in order to support, for example, Ukraine and Israel at the moment. However, I assure you John, the Department of Defense would never cut into the ammunition and missiles that are designated to support our global contingency war fighting plans. These are op plans complants.

5:23 We would never cut into those. So I guess the overall excess ammunition that we’ve had at one point is now flowing I think appropriately to Ukraine and to Israel, both sensible uses of that. But the bottom line is we need to increase the capability of US defense base and I’ll finish with this. I think the real challenge

5:51 here is not about the current moment. It’s about the rising threat of China and can our defense industrial compete with China’s which is increasing exponentially. Frankly, so, I’m I’m satisfied. The US military is quite capable at the moment and it’s proving it. But it’s the future we got to worry about in China is the pacing threat.

6:18 Speaker 1 Uh presidentcy does you know he wants more commerce with the United States. Meanwhile, there’s rumors going around he is getting rid of certain generals and keeping others because he wants generals that are following his orders one hundred. What do you hear? Are they pro commerce in pro rather have peace and more? What would give us your your feelings?

6:57 Speaker 2 In terms of President she he is consolidating control of the Chinese military. He’s already firmly in control of the government. He wants to make sure that both the generals, the admirals, the leading political actors in China, the leading business men and women of China are all on board with the vision of the Chinese Communist Party. In terms of his objective,

7:24 his number one objective, John is the Chinese economy. It’s still in the doldrum. Still would say in a navy context, hiss ship is in irons. It doesn’t have the way on the ship it’s stuck operating well, and that’s because of the mishandling of COVID for three years. China has just not emerged from the pandemic and gotten back to

7:48 the kind of consistent five to seven percent growth that they really need. By some estimates, their growth may be as low as one to two percent, perhaps a bit higher. That’s not sufficient to keep the population. They have very high youth unemployment, always a key sign of discontent. Their demographics are very bad. Women are not producing enough children.

8:13 Therefore their population is declining year after year. So when you put all that together, if your president, she your number one objective is a functioning global economy, and that’s why. And this is a good thing. China is cooperating with the United States and trying to put pressure on Iran to stop these piracy attacks, for example, off the Ghost

8:36 of the Red Sea. So put it all together, she is still firmly in control. He’s not looking for a whore. He would like to get the global economy going in hopes that that will lift the vote of the Chinese economy into one. Exception to everything I just said would be if Taiwan declared independence and really try I had

9:00 to break away. I think that could lead to a war. I don’t foresee that happening. Taiwan just had an election. The candidate was not the preferred one of China, but it’s still that new president, President Lai, who will be installed in office in April. He’s not looking for independence, he’s not looking for a war. So I think overall

9:23 US China relations are a good spot compared to what’s going on in the Middle East and compared to what’s going on in Ukraine.

9:32 Speaker 1 Understood now, there was Iran. Why are there such sensitivities in Washington from the current administration on Iran? There was a Wall Street Journal carried an article that we gave them intelligence that Saudi Arabia’s ISIS was going to attack.

9:54 They didn’t believe it, but we gained the intelligence, according to the Wall Street Journal.

10:00 Speaker 2 Yeah, that is surprising to me. I for one, don’t understand why we would want to provide intelligence about a terrorist attack to an Iranian government that is attacking us through proxies through the Houthi rebels and the Red Sea.

10:19 The proxies in Iraq in Syria are attacking our troops. So I am perplexed as to why we would provide them intelligence because we’re in a near state of war with Iran right now. Having said that, we then saw the callous behavior of the Uranians. I suppose they didn’t believe us, but almost one hundred of their people were

10:43 killed at that ceremony where we warned them there would be a terrorist attack. I think the key to understand here is that Iran, through its proxies the Huthis in the Red Sea, Kamas in Gaza, and as Bellah north of Israel, occupying the state of Lebanon. In all three of those places, they are attacking us. They’re attacking Israel owned.

11:10 They would seek to damage to the Gulf Arab state, Saudi Arabian UAE, who are our partners and allies and friends. Iran is no friend to the United States, and I think we need to increase the military pressure on Iran.

11:26 Speaker 1 Understood. Last question are my good friend who’s on one of the Navy boards, Leo Cooles, says to me that they’re concerned that the Navy needs more ships, they need more support. You’ve been there forever. Tell me what’s your thoughts.

11:46 Speaker 2 On I’ll give you the numbers. John. We’ve got about three hundred significant military warships in the United States Navy. China has three hundred and fifty and they are building more than we are. So you don’t have to be a Nobel Prize winning mathematician to realize the number of Chinese ships is going to continue to outpace US. Ours

12:12 are bigger, we have nuclear power, we have a lot of capability, we have a lot more experience. But quantity has a quality on its own. And therefore I think your friend is correct. We need to build more warships.

12:26 We need to think about a US navy that approaches three hundred and fifty ships. And all you have to do, John, is look around the world and look at the demand signal. We have carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean and in the Red Sea, in the Arabian Gulf in combat. We have our carriers in the Western Pacific deterring China from claiming

12:51 the entire South China Sea as territorial waters. We have carriers operating in the North Atlantic, and with those carriers have to come to the cruisers, the destroyers, the frigates, the oilers that keep them supplied at sea. So all of that is crucial if we are going to maintain global security.

13:14 And final thought, we don’t want to be the world’s policeman, but we want to live in a safe neighborhood and sometimes that means having very capable military forces. We need a bigger maybe to do that.

13:28 Speaker 1 Admir thank you for your common sense. Thank you for everything you’ve done for our country and continue to speak out for our country, and I hope you higher positions are available to you in the future. Thank you so much.

13:44 Speaker 2 Thanks John, great talking to you. Thank you