Polling Uncertainty and the Unpredictable Road to Election Day

0:00 Speaker 1 A good friend for many years. A common sense Democrat. With us today is Jerry Kremer. And he was the, well, he was in the New York State Senate and the Ways and Means Committee, which is a very, very powerful committee.

0:15 And Jerry Kremer, we’ve been going up and down the roller coaster for the last few months. Nobody knows where the heck we are. Give us your pulse of what you think we are. Okay.

0:27 Speaker 2 You know, a lot of people who I talk to, John, thanks for letting me be a part of your show. A lot of people I go to are confused. They’re holding their powder. They’re not making commitments. And I think it’s a reflection of the fact that I think this is the most unique election I think maybe in your

0:50 and my lifetime. And considering the first time I ran for office, It was as a young kid when Nelson Rockefeller was governor. But I’ve never seen anything quite like this. First of all, the polls, as far as I’m concerned, are meaningless because there are so many people who don’t want to answer a phone call and talk about what

1:11 their preferences are.

1:12 Speaker 1 And, Jerry, there’s no more phones. It’s all cell phones. There’s cell phones, so you might be sitting in the Bahamas. You might be sitting in Miami when your phone answers.

1:24 Speaker 2 Yeah, but the fact of the matter is, John, is there is no such thing as a cell phone directory like we used to have those fat Manhattan phone books. So the fact of the matter is, you know, occasionally you and I might get a call, but much to my surprise, I have never, ever gotten a call from

1:43 a pollster. So let’s look about where this election goes.

1:47 Speaker 1 Jerry, the truth. I have the most foundable... I have the same cell number for 25 years, and I’ve never, ever gotten a call from a pollster either.

1:57 Speaker 2 Yeah, right. Yeah, so when they tell you what the march in Avera is, John, sometimes you’ve got to say to yourself, what are they talking about? They didn’t call me. They didn’t call any of my friends. Nobody’s reported ever having a call. So the fact of the matter is that, you know, the Democrats in New York State, and it

2:17 is a Democratic state, or they’re going to have a strong turnout. One of the things that we don’t know is the Republicans are energized in a certain way this year like never before. And the question is, what are they going to do to get their turnout that they need to be competitive? I think there’s another thing that’s

2:37 good this year. There are a lot more quality candidates who are running for office this time compared to a lot of the others over the years. So you’re finding younger and smarter and brighter candidates faces who really want to contribute something to the big picture. I also think there’s just another aspect. We don’t know whether there’s an

3:00 anti-incumbent flavor in the air. We know that the public does get tired of politicians after a while. You and I were around when Mario Cuomo ran for a third term and lost to George Pataki. But we don’t know whether there were any voters who were saying, you know, This person’s had enough. I’m ready to move on. So

3:22 that only adds, you know, to the big dilemma as to where is this thing really going? And, you know, the more I listen to people, the more they talk, everybody is so guarded about what they’re going to do, which is what makes this election so unique. So anybody who tells you that anything is a sure thing, maybe

3:44 Tom DiNapoli running for state controller is a sure thing. But pretty much beyond that, there is no sure thing. And I think that election night, you should be prepared.

3:54 Speaker 1 There’s a lot of decent people this year on the Republican side. But the Democrats have a 70-30 advantage in registration? Yep.

4:09 Speaker 2 And it’s true. And, you know, I’m going on the assumption because you and I lived through these cycles. Two years ago, it was a great year for the Republicans. This year, it’s a year when the so-called mid-year event.

4:25 This is a year that, you know, strange things can happen. It favors the Democrats. But I’m not counting any Republican out this year other than some, you know, marginal candidate in upstate New York. But I mean, for instance, there’s a race in upstate New York. It was the congressional seat of Elise Stefanik. You’ve got a Democrat who’s competitive

4:46 in an area that is as ruby red as you can imagine. So there is just nothing that I would agree to that is a fixed thing as to what’s going to happen election night. I think there’s the potential for us to have a few surprises.

5:01 Speaker 1 Well, thank you so much for coming on this Sunday. And maybe we’ll talk on Wednesday, the day after the election.

5:08 Speaker 2 All right. It’ll be my pleasure. You and I’ll be tired, but we’ll be ready to talk.

5:11 Speaker 1 I look forward to it. Thank you, Jerry Kramer. Thank you. Be well.