The Stoler Report with Michael Stoler: Robin Schneiderman

0:00 Speaker 1 Good morning, this is Mike Stoler for the Stoler Real Estate Report. The residential market is hot as a pistol, as they would say, especially in New York City, and that includes even the fifth borough, Staten Island. No offense to my listeners who are from Staten Island. So today I have an expert who’s going to talk about the

0:19 residential market in New York City, what’s happening, where it’s at, what the prices are, and interesting topics. I have Robin Schneiderman, who is the Managing Director at Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing.

0:34 Speaker 2 Great to see you, Michael. Thanks for having me.

0:36 Speaker 1 It’s great to have you. So what’s going on today with the condo world?

0:43 Speaker 2 So 2026, year to date, the new development market from an absorption standpoint is probably down roughly between 10% and 15% in terms of the number of contracts signed. However, if you look at the total sales volume in terms of transactions, we’re up. So what does that really tell you?

1:05 That the high end of the market is performing well because we’re down a number of contract signs, but the total sales volume is up. What about the prices? The pricing is flat when you look at the entire market as a whole. So there are certain pockets that are increasing.

1:24 And there are certain areas probably at the lower end, right, that are decreasing. But when you average it all out, the market is essentially flat. And interesting, we just completed a 10-year study on the new development market. The market is flat for 10 years historically when you look back that far.

1:43 Speaker 3 What do you attribute that to?

1:45 Speaker 2 It’s interesting because the supply and demand metrics in New York have, you know, there’s a tremendous amount of new construction that happens And then it slows down, and then it picks up. And I think that as you see more inventory come on, usually there’s a little bit of a pullback in prices. And then as the market absorbs

2:06 the majority of that inventory, then you start to see the market go up again.

2:10 Speaker 1 So let’s talk about different neighborhoods where there are increasing sales. Sure.

2:17 Speaker 2 So as we go into 2000, fall 2026 selling season, We’re finally going to get some new product coming to the market, which the New York City new development market desperately needs. I could tell you that this is the first time in many years that the total number of units in New York City new development is under 3,000 units.

2:42 We sell about 1,500, 1,600 a year, right? So that’s only two years of inventory. Many years ago, the market was oversupplied and we were even declining. But now we’re starting to see some pickup. and we’re excited to see some new projects come on the Upper East Side specifically.

2:58 There was just a tremendous success story at the corner of 84th and Madison. You know, small building, 25 units, but they’re all sold out.

3:06 Speaker 3 At what price range?

3:08 Speaker 2 $ 5, 000 per square foot. Should I say it again? $ 5, 000 per square foot.

3:13 Speaker 3 What would they have been two years ago?

3:15 Speaker 2 Well, it’s hard to say because it’s so rare to actually develop on a block like that on the Upper East Side, just off Central Park. So it was a few years ago, the Armani building that SL Green did achieved close to those numbers on 68th and Madison. So there are some benchmarks there, but these are what I

3:37 would say unicorns as it relates to what can be achieved in New York City. You really have to be in an A + + location.

3:45 Speaker 1 With regard to the A + + locations, how do people find these locations? You said you recently got more involved in the sale.

3:55 Speaker 2 Of development sites. Yeah, I mean, 84th and Madison is a classic New York City assemblage story, right? So you buy one building, then you start to buy the second one and the third one. You assemble maybe some air rights and you can put it together. But it takes time to put together those kinds of development opportunities. It’s

4:14 very rare that you can come in and just buy one piece of land or one building. in a super prime location like that.

4:23 Speaker 3 Where are the buyers coming from?

4:26 Speaker 2 So I would say that the lion’s share of the buyers still remain in New York City, right? So we still have a very heavy demand from local New Yorkers. And the other area of the market that remains to be strong is from the second home market, so the pied-à-terre world. The international market, we still are seeing Plenty

4:48 of purchasers from the Asian market, but it’s not as robust as it once was.

4:55 Speaker 1 What about the pied-a-terre tax?

4:56 Speaker 2 The infamous pied-a-terre tax. Everybody likes to talk about it. That’s why I’m asking you the question. The truth of the matter is that we’ve seen some people pull back. They’re stalling their searches for a little bit. They want to see the impact in the market and how it sort of works its way through the system. And I

5:18 would tell you that I’m concerned. You know, the core of our market when it comes to condominium sales, besides the local consumer, has always been pied-a-terres and the international buyer. And those are the people that come to New York, and they come for one or two reasons, right? They want to go out for dinner. They want to go

5:39 to the theater. They want to, you know, do business. And, you know, if you’re telling these folks that, you know, You’re wanted, but we also want your money. It just doesn’t add up to what we need, and we want to welcome people in open arms.

5:55 Speaker 1 So how are you attracting people to come to these developments? I mean, with limited inventory, how do people outshine the other locations?

6:06 Speaker 2 Well, you know, first and foremost is architecture, interior design, amenities. the right floor plans. So, you know, our team at Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing works with our developer clients literally from even prior to the purchase of the land.

6:23 And that’s when we can truly, truly bring the most value to the table to, you know, have the rigorous research that we go through to make sure that what we’re delivering to the market is the type of product that the market is looking for.

6:35 Speaker 1 With regard to type of product, what’s happening in the boroughs? Sure.

6:40 Speaker 2 So, you know, Brooklyn County, remains super strong. Um, there’s definitely a lack of, uh, new development inventory in, out in the, in, in Brooklyn. The, you know, two trees finished up, uh, basically. Yep. The majority of that, of the domino, um, waterfront, which was a tremendous success story. Uh, making of Tali’s team is finishing up, uh, their project

7:04 at the South, you know, the South, uh, Williamsburg waterfront that has sold very well and, and rented well. Um, almost all of the inventory that was developed in Dumbo is basically absorbed. You know, there’s a handful of units left at the CIM project. But we are in what I would say a time where there is, you know,

7:30 you start to hear, hopefully hear about some new projects being announced, but there is still tremendous demand in Brooklyn. And, you know, there’s one project that’s a, happening in Cobble Hill right now by Abdu, which is another active developer.

7:46 And they’re achieving well north of $ 2, 000 per square foot in Brooklyn. And years ago, $ 2, 000 per square foot in Brooklyn was a number you never even heard of. So you can definitely see the future of Brooklyn and prices continuing to increase with the right product.

8:03 Speaker 3 What about Long Island City?

8:06 Speaker 2 Strongest rental market probably in New York City is Long Island City. There seems to be endless demand for rentals. There’s condominiums that are probably seeing the highest absorption rate in all of New York City. One of our clients is ZD Jasper. They’ve done tremendously well over in Long Island City with a handful of projects, and they’re now

8:33 starting sales on one of the exact plots of land where our friends Amazon were supposed to go. So that area that is now being developed with residential condominiums.

8:48 Speaker 3 What about flushing?

8:50 Speaker 2 Flushing is certainly a market. Our team has not sold or rented anything, but when you’re driving through there, you can tell that there is tremendous demand because there’s just more and more new construction happening. I think that the future of Citi Field And the soccer stadium and the casino are certainly going to be drivers in those markets.

9:15 Speaker 3 Last but not least, the Bronx.

9:17 Speaker 2 The Bronx is— I mean, affordable contos. Very, very limited. But rentals are active. If you look at the Mott Haven waterfront, the rents there are well north of $ 65 per square foot. I mean, when people were underwriting those deals.

9:34 Speaker 3 They were underwriting at $ 40. Correct. Correct.

9:37 Speaker 2 Correct. So they’re north of 65. And Manhattan, for a new construction rental in what I’ll call a desirable residential location, rents are now north of $ 130 per square foot. $ 130. Yes. We are officially at the highest end of the rental market in the history of Manhattan.

10:01 Speaker 1 Interesting things. You bring up many interesting points, and I hope to bring you back later on in the year. Thanks again for being here.

10:09 Speaker 2 Great to see you, Michael. Take care.